Market Analysis Review

Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 12.02.2025

| 12 February, 2025 at 11:00 GMT

EURUSD

As US President Trump imposed tariffs on many countries including EU allies, EZ leaders warned that Europe will respond immediately if tariffs were imposed according to German Chancellor. EURUSD was little changed today, trading at $1.0358 where the traders are waiting for the US inflation numbers later today. USD index increased slightly today to 108.05. 

1H RSI is almost overbought at 71, and with bearish trend index in 1H, correction may happen again to $1.0320. Traders remained mostly bearish.

USDJPY

USDJPY gained & traded higher today at 153.56, one-week high after BoJ governor provided no guidance on the future of the interest rates policy. PPI from Japan will be due later today, it will show the inflation in production sector, that’s another important data BoJ & policy makers are watching. In the meantime, all eyes will remain on the US political developments & inflation. 

Even if 1H RSI is overbought, price action remained bullish, heading higher to 154. Traders remained divided between 25% bullish & 25% bearish . 152.60 is support.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD showed no change this morning, trading at $1.2445 amid tight volatility. BoE governor Bailey said that the deregulations can be bad for growth. There will be no major releases from the UK for today, the focus will remain on the US side & USD performance. 

Sentiments among the traders were mostly bearish. 1H RSI is overbought now with low volatility . Next target will be $1.2485.  $1.2375 is support.

Gold

As highly expected ( we clarified yesterday) , gold traded lower today & fell to $2892 per ounce after strong gains on Monday. Fed’s Chair Powell said that there is no urgency for further rate cuts, that’s why the US CPI numbers later today will be vital in the short-term outlook. Higher inflation will keep the demand for gold intact. 

Even if the correction happened , trend remained bullish. Such a correction was highly expected & supported by bearish traders’ behavior . 1H price action is not fully bullish now and the technical diagram has not yet confirmed  the up trend ( 1H chart). $2860 will be the next support. 

Silver

Silver was little changed today, trading at $31.82 per ounce. Traders have ignored the impact of tariffs for now, trying to focus on the possible supply deficit due to the US tariffs & retaliation by the trading partners & competitors  including China & EZ. 

Volatility index remained low, with slightly positive momentum. 1H price action is heading higher slowly. $32.18 will be the next target ( resistance).

Oil – WTI

Crude oil prices fell again today, WTI $73 PB, Brent $76.72PB. According to API, US weekly crude oil inventories increased by 9 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations of 2.8 million barrels, it was the largest increase in a year. EIA will release the weekly inventories later today.  What the US is trying to do now is to target  networks that ship  Iranian oil to China which means that the oil supply may face disruptions. 

1H RSI was overbought before the correction happened. Among the traders, 50% of them were bearish and only 25% bullish (1Week). $72.40 is support. Sentiments have not yet become fully bearish. 

DAX

DAX index futures traded slightly higher today after the positive closing on Tuesday at 22034m new record-high as well. The diversion of the monetary policy between the US & EZ will make EUR cheaper, that’s better for the EU equities, only if EZ has not fallen into deep recession. German Bundesbank president will have speech later today and 10Y German bond auction will be held this afternoon as well. DAX index has the best performance YTD among EZ biggest economies’ indexes by 10.92%, followed by 8.7% in France, 10% in Italy & 10.1% in Spain. 

Fully overbought, but the price action showed no hesitation nor exposure to massive correction. 21900 is support. Trend index is fully bullish now.

Nasdaq

US stock futures were mixed today, after modest gains on Tuesday, Dow Jones 0.28%, SPX 0.03% & Nasdaq dropped by 0.36% after the Fed’s Chair Powell said that there is no urgency to cut the interest rates further. In the meantime, all eyes will remain on the US inflation later today, the higher the inflation, the stronger the USD is likely to remain with higher rates for longer, if that happens then US equities will remain under pressure. If US inflation missed  the estimates & weakened in January then risk appetite will increase. 

Technical diagram shows the possibility of falling to 21590 then 21470, supported by bearish index in 1H chart. 1H RSI is sideways now.

BTCUSD

Bitcoin traded little changed today at $95778, the lowest in almost a month, other cryptocurrencies fell , Cardano -2.63%, XRP -0.60%, Solana -2.3% and Eth was unchanged at $2604, the weakest level since last November. It was very clear that Trump’s euphoria for cryptos started to fade recently, however the sentiments have not yet changed profoundly. Easing  inflation in the US could ignite another BTC rally according to many crypto experts. 

While 1H RSI remained sideways, trend index in 1H was bullish. In one month outlook, traders’ sentiments remain fully bullish by 75% of the traders, and only 25% are bearish.